Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 8.660433 9.973837 11.396858 13.050335 14.915767 16.952113 19.340224
2025-04-20 6.902195 8.704247 10.815224 13.458735 16.667623 20.422880 25.135545
2025-04-27 5.959759 7.968284 10.441408 13.687974 17.812224 22.848902 29.434338
2025-05-04 5.114817 7.213352 9.916787 13.619125 18.516222 24.725285 33.139296
2025-05-11 4.422436 6.539739 9.378476 13.412878 18.939522 26.176566 36.287822
2025-05-18 3.937737 6.080158 9.058465 13.434668 19.619940 27.954214 39.915695
2025-05-25 3.578498 5.749353 8.868770 13.593120 20.461324 29.955640 43.912044
2025-06-01 3.226631 5.385812 8.588311 13.579990 21.032509 31.584894 47.447031
2025-06-08 2.894426 5.013376 8.253687 13.445396 21.395423 32.911024 50.589150
2025-06-15 2.665119 4.777353 8.099816 13.559507 22.115412 34.766956 54.561721
2025-06-22 2.524578 4.670251 8.133491 13.956896 23.275563 37.313208 59.654162
2025-06-29 2.282595 4.366290 7.822525 13.776481 23.514826 38.471183 62.698925
2025-07-06 1.961666 3.896408 7.205200 13.060860 22.873377 38.268324 63.695176
2025-07-13 1.853920 3.798139 7.207356 13.374487 23.913616 40.734848 68.953233
2025-07-20 1.748450 3.691908 7.183672 13.635526 24.871370 43.102207 74.143478
2025-07-27 1.601911 3.491842 6.975187 13.555592 25.242339 44.530496 77.879553
2025-08-03 1.453716 3.272359 6.711499 13.354044 25.384028 45.577035 81.023994
2025-08-10 1.349104 3.129357 6.577188 13.374429 25.908033 47.274787 85.305312
2025-08-17 1.270613 3.032066 6.520997 13.532702 26.680674 49.419924 90.416407
2025-08-24 1.179230 2.897561 6.380602 13.519467 27.136897 51.035010 94.684562
2025-08-31 1.083225 2.742491 6.185851 13.385465 27.358013 52.242645 98.290369
2025-09-07 1.020502 2.655200 6.120891 13.499101 28.042915 54.289404 103.427525
2025-09-14 0.988894 2.636236 6.195588 13.894912 29.281068 57.371403 110.501640